Conclusions without consequence

 These are my conclusions about what is going on in the year 2020.

They are of no consequence, for many reasons. First of all, no one reads this blog. Second of all, even if someone did, it can be readily ascertained that I am an old, white male, cis-gendered and heterosexual, of western European descent, and a Christian. I am therefore pre-canceled, as falling in an intersection of categories (even though most of said categories are federally protected) that cannot credibly express an opinion.

On Friday, March 13, 2020 my world came to an end, and a new one came into being. I have already written of this.

At the time, I (and almost everyone in the USA) agreed with the necessity of a 15 day lockdown, to "flatten the curve," due to graphs like this one (from here):

But now, 15 days has turned into more than 7 months, and no end is in sight.

My first conclusion. This graph is inaccurate and misleading. The two curves depend on the R₀ value for contagion without and with "precautions" such as "social distancing." I'm willing to assume that the two curves are correct. But do note that the number of deaths is proportional to the area of the curve (not the height), and that the two areas are about equal. So, no matter what we had done, the same number of people would have died. The only thing at risk was a predicted collapse of our health care system if we took no action. People were going to die no matter what we did.

The problem is the horizontal line, whose vertical position shares the same y axis as the two curves. But, and this is a big "but," the health care capacity doesn't relate to the number of cases, but to the number of hospitalizations, which will be much much smaller. So the correct diagram should look like this:

I drew this on a whiteboard in my office building to explain this point to a colleague. I call it "the chart that couldn't" because a correct showing of the two curves and the health capacity could not have convinced anyone that we needed to choose the flatter curve.

The other thing going for the accuracy of the whiteboard sketch is that the numbers that give the heights of the two colored curves were wrong! They were too large by a factor of about 25, and came from a well-known error made by Dr. Ferguson of the Imperial College University.

Now, would you have agreed to a lockdown based on the second graph? I know that I would not have.

Conclusion: the economic collapse of the western world was completely unnecessary!

Add to that hospitals that virtually closed their doors to all but Covid-19 patients, resulting in furloughs for medical staff and thousands of people delaying treatment for other health problems. In the end, many more people have died because of the lockdown itself.

Who gains from the destruction of the western world, and of the USA in particular? Who? WHO? WHO, among other world powers.

It is the Fabian socialists and their genetic and philosophical descendants. Those who believe they, by right, should rule the world. Who should rule? Their answer, "the elite." And the big obstacle to their program is the USA with its constitutional republic, whose answer to the question, "Who should rule?" is very clearly,"the people." America has to go down.

Conclusion: the economic collapse of the USA (not to mention its retreat from the basic rights that ought to be unalienable) is necessary to usher in the new world order. So that elites can rule over all of us.

Second major topic. The SARS CoV-2 virus escaped (or was deliberately released) from a lab in Wuhan, China. At the time it began to infect humans it had already evolved to efficiently infect humans. The work of internationally known Alina Chan demonstrates this. Of her work, she says, "It is very difficult to do research when one hypothesis has been negatively cast as a conspiracy theory." Much has been vociferated about "science." As she points out, "The world of science is still a bit medieval in its power structure." So, her conclusions, however well documented, and however much evidence is marshaled, will likely be struck down by the emperors of science and the accepted way (acceptable to the elite).

Conclusion: the virus may very well have been deliberately engineered to take out the older people of the western world. Taking out the older people is a well-used technique of domination (e.x. Pol Pot in Cambodia). Less-developed countries (and even China) appear to have been largely spared. I do not believe that is accidental.

Not just the deaths, tragic enough in their own right, but the destruction of our economy, discrediting the free-market system, also benefits the global elite. Their immediate mission is to bring America down to the level of other countries so that there is little need for us to resist a single global government. What would we have to lose if American exceptionalism were no longer a thing?

Conclusion: we are being lied to and manipulated by greedy, power-hungry people, who want to rule. Who will not flinch at killing millions of people to reach their goal.

Those are my conclusions. For the record. So long as the Internet lasts. But really, of no consequence.

Consternation without Consolation

I am inconsolable.

Sorrow

I mourn the passing of our American way of life. It. is. gone.

I miss gathering with the Saints and singing the hymns of Zion.

I miss facing dozens of students in a classroom and watching them learn, and working with students one-on-one, and holding lab meetings.

I miss the possibility of traveling to Mauritius or France (or even Canada) to renew dear acquaintances, and a thousand other things which are no longer possible.

I miss being able to trust authority.

I am grateful to be able to be with my immediate family, and enjoy food and shelter, so the grief is not unmitigated.

Some enemy did this*

I believe that our way of life crumbled under an enemy attack.

I believe that we allowed this to happen because of fear.

America is no longer "the home of the brave," but now a country of the fearful cowering in their homes.

Even the military is afraid of holding "a 12 person, 45 minute meeting in a conference room," according to an informal survey conducted in Fairfax County, VA.

To see where we're headed, read the short science fiction story "The Machine Stops" published in 1909.

Our weakness as a people

America's greatest weakness: its people's fear of death.

Our way of life has been destroyed by some enemy preying on our greatest fear, the fear of death.

Two great experiments conducted by our enemies to test this: 9/11 and the corona virus**.

The outcome of the experiments confirm that, yes, the American people will fold and give up their way of life when faced with the threat of death.

A single unjust death can be used to enrage them to the point where they will burn down their own cities, unjustly killing many more people in the process.

I don't trust the numbers

The enemy is not just external. There are factions inside our country wanting to tear down our history and our Constitution. It is no longer possible to get accurate information. It is no longer possible to trust our leaders (whether elected or appointed) and our news media. An appeal to science is useless, as evidenced by headlines of the form "999 scientists agree that X" with ever escalating numbers, but contradictory conclusions. We are left to our own experience.

Within the last few days I have learned from trusted people whom I know personally that a) the illness is real and devastating, and b) that deaths are being wrongly reported as due to the illness when they are not. So, the threat is real, but the numbers cannot be trusted.

Personal fear

After 9/11, to prove that I would not succumb to fear, I took a flight as soon as possible, for no particular reason other than to demonstrate that I had not been terrorized. A very small thing but one that I felt very strongly about.

In the case of this corona virus, I am personally unafraid, but can't think of a big gesture. I do go about my life as much as possible as before. But I am met with disapproval. Fear has morphed into contempt for the unafraid.

I am no stranger to fear myself.

I am afraid to publish this point of view.

I feel the flood of contempt which would follow.

I fear that no one will actually even read this.

I fear that I will die without having had any positive impact on the world, and that that death, however it might occur, will be counted as a death from COVID-19.

I fear that the corona virus will get the last word (actually, a shout (right?)) in this post, hence this feeble sentence to prevent at least that.

Notes

*Matthew 13:28

**Freeze this video to see the outcome of this game of Risk ™. Not just America, but the entire industrialized world has been conquered. By a country which, if we can trust its own report (hah!), lost only a thousand of its own citizens.

Conduit without Constraint

As an elder of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, I am sometimes called upon to give a priesthood blessing for the sick or afflicted. This is in the grand tradition of early saints -- see James 5:13-15.

Often, also, an elder will give a blessing of counsel and advice to his children. This is called a "father's blessing," a tradition which extends back even further, into Old Testament times.

So, it was a bit of a surprise to me, when my own father asked me for a blessing. I and my siblings were all visiting our parents, sometime in the mid 1980's. Our father had suffered a stroke in 1978, and his recovery was very slow. Actually, less a "recovery" than learning to compensate for his diminished abilities and still enjoy life as it had become.

Some of the family took me aside for a serious conversation before I fulfilled his request. They pointed out that our father had lived a good life, but that he could no longer do all of the things that he had loved as a vibrant man. They suggested that I should take advantage of this opportunity to give him a blessing of release, allowing him to pass peacefully into the next stage of existence. There he could enjoy his full strength and vigor.

Well, with some experience holding the priesthood, one learns that the blessing doesn't come from the man, but from God. The man is but a conduit for the power of God and it is best if he does nothing to constrain it. Including have in mind some words or thoughts of his own.

We surrounded our father, seated in a chair. One of my brothers-in-law anointed his head with consecrated olive oil (James 5:14) and then I placed my hands directly on his head, with my brothers-in-law adding their own hands. I called our father by name, and by the authority of the Melchizedek priesthood, we blessed him.

One does this with a clear mind and no preconceived notions. When moved upon by the spirit, one begins to speak. Many words flowed through me, but the only phrase that I remember clearly was, "and you will yet live to be of service in the Church." I know that I was prompted by the spirit to make him that promise. Yet, as a mortal man, wishing him to continue living, this felt just a bit audacious.

And, those same family members again took me aside and gently reprimanded me for missing this opportunity to let our father go. It's not that I didn't take their point, but I could only utter words as given by the spirit, and it was not his time to go.

As it turns out, our parents were called to serve a senior couple mission, and worked for 18 months in the Granite Mountain Records Vault, labeling rolls of microfilm containing genealogical records. They moved into a little apartment in Salt Lake City. Every work day, after a devotional (which they simply loved), they were bused to the canyon. They made many friends, and enjoyed their work, and were grateful to be able to serve.

A short time after their return, we were again gathered as a family, and once again my father asked me for a blessing. Again, as you might imagine, I was taken aside.

I remember very clearly in this blessing trying to release my father to go on. It seemed as if I felt the Father chuckling at my consternation, and I was given a thought which I put into words like these, "Dad, the Lord is pleased with your life and you have finished your mission on earth, and when you desire it, you may go into the next life."

At the conclusion of the blessing, our father reached up with his left hand and pulled me closer, and croaked, "I don't want to die!" After some nervous laughter all around, I reminded him of the exact words, and as I remembered clearly the sense that was given me, but which I had had to put into my own words, I told him that he didn't have to die now, that it was up to him, and that he wouldn't die until he was good and ready. That phrase so suits our father's personality. Perhaps this explains a bit the humor of my situation, while searching for the words to express the thought that came into my heart with a heavenly chuckle.

Even though, at the time, I had been less than totally active in the Church, in both cases I listened to the spirit and served as a conduit for God's will without constraining it with my own thoughts and desires.

Many years later, our father passed away peacefully. I can only suppose that he was good and ready.

Our mother followed him less than three years later.

contenteditable without cognizance

Not since I discovered QR codes in 2009 have I been so surprised.

HTML has an attribute named contenteditable which can be applied to any part of a web page to allow the person viewing it in a browser to edit that part of the page.

This first appeared in Internet Explorer version 5.5 and so has been around since late in the previous millennium. It is now part of HTML version 5, and has been since at least 2008. That's ten years!

Try it out in the paragraph below, copied from a Wikipedia page (just click somewhere in the text and start changing it).

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum.

I recently began using QR codes at work, including generating them to identify various things.

Today, I began using contenteditable of which I had not been cognizant earlier. It is quite easy to use and allows me to let visitors to my websites edit previously submitted comments.

How could I not have known about this before today?

Commandments without Confabulation

My wife, Sara, and I are reading the Old Testament this year, and we're now well into the book of Exodus, also known as the Second Book of Moses.

In chapter 3, "God called unto him... [and] said, I am the God of thy father, the God of Abraham, the God of Isaac, and the God of Jacob." Moses was not the first man to talk with God. There are accounts of Adam, Enoch, Noah, Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob who each had a personal relationship with God (as recounted in the First Book of Moses, called Genesis).

Moses had not been looking for God. He was living his life herding sheep for his father-in-law when he turned aside, curious about a bush that appeared to be burning but was not consumed. God gave him a mission, which involved the exodus of the posterity of Jacob from the land of Egypt, and a journey which consumed the remaining forty years of his life.

After freeing the people from Egypt, "Moses was in the mount forty days and forty nights." During this time he was talking with the Lord, receiving instruction, and obtaining a "covenant, the ten commandments"  which he brought back into the camp on two "tables of stone, written with the finger of God."

There are two kinds of people in the world: those who believe that humans were created first and later invented God as an explanation, and those who believe that God came first, created humans, and revealed himself to them.

Moses was of the second kind. Though Moses had not been seeking an explanation, God revealed himself to him, and the two of them thereafter had a solid and real relationship.

Moses was not making this up, so the commandments that he obtained were without confabulation.

While he was gone, the people wearied of his absence, and entreated Aaron to "make us gods, which shall go before us; for as for this Moses, the man that brought us up out of the land of Egypt, we wot not what is become of him." So Aaron collected their gold and made a "molten calf ... and they said, These be thy gods, O Israel, which brought thee up out of the land of Egypt."

These were people of the first kind, inventing gods to make sense of their situation.

Moses believed, because of his own experience, that God came first and revealed himself to humans he had created. We get the sense that God would have wanted to reveal himself to everyone, but could not because of their lack of belief. Lack of belief was not an option for Moses, who knew God and had a relationship with him.

What to make of the two kinds of people? Today, they are at odds with one another. Those of the humans-invented-gods camp are certain that they are correct. They have a creation story, based on remnants from a distant past which can be observed today, such as fossils and the background radiation of the big bang*.

Those of the god-created-humans camp are equally sure that they are correct. They have a creation story based on revelation from the God whose prophets knew him personally.

So, which story corresponds to the reality of the universe?

Were humans created by chance and necessity without any intervention from a pre-existing being? Did they then invent gods and creation stories to explain the incomprehensible?

Or, did a pre-existing God create humans, and then reveal himself to (some of) them? Did he provide an account of creation suitable for keepers of flocks and herds?

I acknowledge that two positions exist and claim that a person's choice of one of these alternatives is an act of faith**. The choice is based on which story seems most reasonable, and upon which authorities one finds most persuasive. It can also be based on a personal relationship with God, respectful of commandments and without confabulation.

--

*According to wikipedia, "The Big Bang theory is the prevailing cosmological model for the universe."

** It seems unjust to me that "the prevailing" view should be taught by the school system as fact while the "religious" view is forbidden to be taught, and is ridiculed and persecuted by militant groups who believe life is an accident. Justice demands that each person be free to choose what she or he believes, with both beliefs having equal rights.

Collection without consent

Household budget. Generally a household has monthly income and monthly expenses. These can be lined up in two columns, and decisions can be made about how much can be spent each month in each of a number of areas: housing, food, clothing, entertainment, etc. This process is called making a budget.

This post is about dealing with expenses which do not occur monthly, and which in the limit may not occur at all. One way to handle these is to "save for a rainy day." Another is to purchase "insurance." Personally, I prefer to avoid insurance, and purchase it only when--and in the amounts--required by law. For other types of expenses, I prefer "self-insurance" which is to say saving for that possible future rainy day.

The family car will one day need to be replaced. The water heater will one day need to be replaced. For this kind of thing, "insurance" doesn't apply, because the event is certain to happen. The only unknown is when it will happen.

Insurance applies only when the event is not certain or when its cost would exceed an amount that the family is willing to save. Paying an insurance premium is a way of saving for the un-hoped-for event. Purchasing insurance means pooling those savings with others, preferably many others, so that the risk is spread around.

"Health insurance" is a ridiculous concept. Why? Because the event (needing to consult a doctor or visit a hospital) is pretty much sure to happen, and the cost usually doesn't exceed an amount that a family could reasonably be able to save.* So pooling your savings with other people is absurd. Why? Because the "insurance" company will take a cut (generally at least 20%), and they will set up all kinds of road-blocks and barriers to your being able to tap into your savings.

Much better to save for future health care needs.

However, our country has made this impossible! We are required, by law, to pool our savings with others pay "premiums" to "health insurance" companies. If we choose not to, we are penalized by increased taxes**. If we choose not to, we are lumped in with others who can't afford premiums and are counted as part of the number of those who "do not have health insurance."***

We don't want it! We think it is stupid! We reject the notion that we must pool our savings with others. We don't wish nameless companies to take part of our savings for their own use and profit and then tell us what we can and cannot do with the rest of it.

May we please have legislation that makes it unlawful for anyone to profit from our relationship with health care providers!

no more collection without consent

* The exception is the only health insurance that can correctly be called an "insurance" at all: catastrophic health insurance. By all means, purchase this if you want to be saved from cancer, etc.

** This is outrageous. First, it was imposed as a way to get around the fact that a law requiring citizens to make a purchase is unconstitutional! Second, what guarantee do we have that that tax penalty will benefit someone else who is unwilling too poor to save for their own medical expenses?

*** It is somehow considered a bad thing to be without health insurance. Obviously, I disagree and think of it as a smart thing, and resent being counted as a victim when it is something that I freely choose.

Communication without correctness

In contrast to my previous post, which also contains some writing done when I was eighteen years old, this one was published. It was a work of non-fiction, and contained some inaccuracies.

Valedictory

"All who have meditated in the art of governing mankind have been convinced that the fate of empires depends on the education of youth."

Those were the words of the ancient philosopher, Aristotle, commenting on the vital role of education in his time. In our time, the need for education is much greater. Our happiness, economic success, and well-being in the future depend on the extent of your education.

Our technology today is expanding more rapidly than it has ever done before in the history of man. Many new books, especially those on scientific subjects, become out-dated within five to ten years from the time they are published. The use of automation is increasing. Computers speed up the handling of business; run all sorts of establishments from airports to libraries; and are an indispensible aid to scientific research. They are also essential to national defence. The heart of the NORAD defence system is a giant computer which keeps tabs on hundreds of flying objects simultaneously and warns of enemy attack. These remarkable devices are the products of the well-trained minds of the past. But many people are needed now, and many more will be needed in the future, just to keep our defense systems up to date. It is indeed true that the fate of impires depends on the education of the youth.

We graduands have, for the past twelve years, been learning the facts which will enable us to take our place in the future. We have not been alone in this effort. Many teachers have laboured to give us the knowledge of past centuries. Facts which have been accumulating for hundreds of years are now our personal possessions thanks to their efforts. To our parents we also extend our personal gratitude. They have given us the rather firm encouragement that we have needed at times. Yes, our thanks go to all those who have so painstakingly prepared us for success in the future; a future full of promise.

We will be sorry to leave these familiar hallways and classrooms. They have been the scene of so many happy moments, and the backdrop for so many distressing problems. They will remain in our memories forever.

Our high school preparation is now complete; we are ready to go our separate ways and face the great challenges that lie ahead. May we forge forward fearlessly and make our lives as successful and enjoyable as our high school days have been. The future and all it holds is waiting.

Besides some typos and spelling mistakes (some due to the customary usage of British English in our school), the most glaring inaccuracy is my (younger self's) prediction that we would always remember the "familiar hallways and classrooms." After I delivered the speech, my classmate, Ian Miller, took me aside and pointed out that this was not true, that we were not "sorry to leave [them]" and that we would never think of them again.

Another inaccuracy, by omission, is that I failed to predict just how ubiquitous computers would be during our lives, and that most of my classmates would one day own a computer more powerful than the one highlighted here, and that furthermore we would be carrying it around in our pocket or purse and sometimes even use it to make phone calls.

In any case, I am happy to have this valedictory address on the Internet record, and recorded here for posterity.

Here is a picture of the page (including a picture of that younger self) scanned from our high school yearbook.